2011 Week 4 Predictions

Prediction
DET (3-0-0)  @ DAL (2-1-0)  Pred: DET 
CAR (1-2-0)  @ CHI (1-2-0)  Pred: CHI 
BUF (3-0-0)  @ CIN (1-2-0)  Pred: BUF 
TEN (2-1-0)  @ CLE (2-1-0)  Pred: CLE 
MIN (0-3-0)  @ KC  (0-3-0)  Pred: KC  
WAS (2-1-0)  @ STL (0-3-0)  Pred: WAS 
NO  (2-1-0)  @ JAC (1-2-0)  Pred: NO  
PIT (2-1-0)  @ HOU (2-1-0)  Pred: HOU 
SF  (2-1-0)  @ PHI (1-2-0)  Pred: SF  
NYG (2-1-0)  @ ARI (1-2-0)  Pred: NYG 
ATL (1-2-0)  @ SEA (1-2-0)  Pred: SEA 
MIA (0-3-0)  @ SD  (2-1-0)  Pred: SD  
NE  (2-1-0)  @ OAK (2-1-0)  Pred: OAK 
DEN (1-2-0)  @ GB  (3-0-0)  Pred: GB  
NYJ (2-1-0)  @ BAL (2-1-0)  Pred: BAL 
IND (0-3-0)  @ TB  (2-1-0)  Pred: TB  




If the ITP is 100% accurate the rest of the way, the Super Bowl will feature the Lions and the Bills. Who'd have guessed?



AFC-E
BUF  16 0
NE   10 6
NYJ 7 9
MIA 0 16


AFC-N
PIT 14 2
CLE  12 4
BAL 10 6
CIN 3 13


AFC-S
HOU  15 1
TEN  9 7
JAC 4 12

IND  0 16

AFC-W
SD   12 4
OAK  9 7
KC   5 11
DEN 3 13


NFC-E
WAS  14 2
NYG 11 5
DAL 9 7

PHI  2 14

NFC-N
DET  16 0
GB   14 2
CHI 8 8
MIN 0 16


NFC-S
NO   14 2
TB   8 8
ATL 6 10
CAR 3 13


NFC-W
SF   9 7
SEA 6 10
ARI 7 9

STL  0 16

2011 Week 3 Results

A carbon-copy of last week's 9-7 record keeps the ITP just below 60% on the young season:



Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct   Cum Corr   Cum Inc   Cum Pct
      9       7   56.3%         28        20     58.3%



Prediction / Result
HOU (2-0-0)  @ NO  (1-1-0)  Pred: HOU Act: NO  -
NYG (1-1-0)  @ PHI (1-1-0)  Pred: PHI Act: NYG -
JAC (1-1-0)  @ CAR (0-2-0)  Pred: JAC Act: CAR -
NE  (2-0-0)  @ BUF (2-0-0)  Pred: BUF Act: BUF +
MIA (0-2-0)  @ CLE (1-1-0)  Pred: CLE Act: CLE +
SF  (1-1-0)  @ CIN (1-1-0)  Pred: CIN Act: SF  -
DEN (1-1-0)  @ TEN (1-1-0)  Pred: TEN Act: TEN +
DET (2-0-0)  @ MIN (0-2-0)  Pred: DET Act: DET +
BAL (1-1-0)  @ STL (0-2-0)  Pred: BAL Act: BAL +
NYJ (2-0-0)  @ OAK (1-1-0)  Pred: NYJ Act: OAK -
KC  (0-2-0)  @ SD  (1-1-0)  Pred: SD  Act: SD  +
ARI (1-1-0)  @ SEA (0-2-0)  Pred: ARI Act: SEA -
ATL (1-1-0)  @ TB  (1-1-0)  Pred: TB  Act: TB  +
GB  (2-0-0)  @ CHI (1-1-0)  Pred: GB  Act: GB  +
PIT (1-1-0)  @ IND (0-2-0)  Pred: PIT Act: PIT +
WAS (2-0-0)  @ DAL (1-1-0)  Pred: WAS Act: DAL -

2011 Week 3 Predictions

Remember, the ITP predicts that the team with the better record will win. In case of a tied record (just four of those this week), the home team wins.


Prediction
HOU (2-0-0)  @ NO  (1-1-0)  Pred: HOU 
NYG (1-1-0)  @ PHI (1-1-0)  Pred: PHI 
JAC (1-1-0)  @ CAR (0-2-0)  Pred: JAC 
NE  (2-0-0)  @ BUF (2-0-0)  Pred: BUF 
MIA (0-2-0)  @ CLE (1-1-0)  Pred: CLE 
SF  (1-1-0)  @ CIN (1-1-0)  Pred: CIN 
DEN (1-1-0)  @ TEN (1-1-0)  Pred: TEN 
DET (2-0-0)  @ MIN (0-2-0)  Pred: DET 
BAL (1-1-0)  @ STL (0-2-0)  Pred: BAL 
NYJ (2-0-0)  @ OAK (1-1-0)  Pred: NYJ 
KC  (0-2-0)  @ SD  (1-1-0)  Pred: SD  
ARI (1-1-0)  @ SEA (0-2-0)  Pred: ARI 
ATL (1-1-0)  @ TB  (1-1-0)  Pred: TB  
GB  (2-0-0)  @ CHI (1-1-0)  Pred: GB  
PIT (1-1-0)  @ IND (0-2-0)  Pred: PIT 
WAS (2-0-0)  @ DAL (1-1-0)  Pred: WAS 

And if the ITP is 100% accurate the rest of the season, here are your final standings, from which we can now project another in the long series of classic Super Bowl showdowns between...The Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions?? [Update: a spreadsheet error led to incorrect projected records by Buffalo and Cleveland. These have been corrected. Somehow we suspect Buffalo, Detroit, and Houston won't all be undefeated after the regular season, but we'll find out soon enough!]


AFC-E
BUF 16 0
NYJ  13 3
NE   11 5
MIA  0 16
AFC-N
CLE 13 3
CIN  10 6
PIT 6 10
BAL 5 11
AFC-S
HOU  16 0
JAC  9 7
TEN 5 11
IND  0 16
AFC-W
SD   11 5
KC   9 7
DEN 5 11
OAK  3 13
NFC-E
WAS  15 1
PHI 9 7
DAL 6 10
NYG  4 12
NFC-N
DET  16 0
GB   14 2
CHI 6 10
MIN 0 16
NFC-S
TB   13 3
ATL 10 6
NO   8 8
CAR 2 14
NFC-W
ARI  15 1
SEA 11 5
SF   4 12
STL  2 14

2011 Week 2 Results

A couple down-to-the-wire games fell the wrong way, but at 9-7 on the week, we're still one game better than even.


Wk Corr Wk Inc Wk Pct Cum Corr Cum Inc Cum Pct
      9      7 56.3% 19 13 59.4%



Prediction / Result
KC  (0-1-0)  @ DET (1-0-0)  Pred: DET Act: DET +
OAK (1-0-0)  @ BUF (1-0-0)  Pred: BUF Act: BUF +
TB  (0-1-0)  @ MIN (0-1-0)  Pred: MIN Act: TB  -
CHI (1-0-0)  @ NO  (0-1-0)  Pred: CHI Act: NO  -
BAL (1-0-0)  @ TEN (0-1-0)  Pred: BAL Act: TEN -
CLE (0-1-0)  @ IND (0-1-0)  Pred: IND Act: CLE -
JAC (1-0-0)  @ NYJ (1-0-0)  Pred: NYJ Act: NYJ +
SEA (0-1-0)  @ PIT (0-1-0)  Pred: PIT Act: PIT +
ARI (1-0-0)  @ WAS (1-0-0)  Pred: WAS Act: WAS +
GB  (1-0-0)  @ CAR (0-1-0)  Pred: GB  Act: GB  +
DAL (0-1-0)  @ SF  (1-0-0)  Pred: SF  Act: DAL -
SD  (1-0-0)  @ NE  (1-0-0)  Pred: NE  Act: NE  +
HOU (1-0-0)  @ MIA (0-1-0)  Pred: HOU Act: HOU +
CIN (1-0-0)  @ DEN (0-1-0)  Pred: CIN Act: DEN -
PHI (1-0-0)  @ ATL (0-1-0)  Pred: PHI Act: ATL -
STL (0-1-0)  @ NYG (0-1-0)  Pred: NYG Act: NYG +

2011 Week 2 Prediction

Prediction
KC  (0-1-0)  @ DET (1-0-0)  Pred: DET 
OAK (1-0-0)  @ BUF (1-0-0)  Pred: BUF 
TB  (0-1-0)  @ MIN (0-1-0)  Pred: MIN 
CHI (1-0-0)  @ NO  (0-1-0)  Pred: CHI 
BAL (1-0-0)  @ TEN (0-1-0)  Pred: BAL 
CLE (0-1-0)  @ IND (0-1-0)  Pred: IND 
JAC (1-0-0)  @ NYJ (1-0-0)  Pred: NYJ 
SEA (0-1-0)  @ PIT (0-1-0)  Pred: PIT 
ARI (1-0-0)  @ WAS (1-0-0)  Pred: WAS 
GB  (1-0-0)  @ CAR (0-1-0)  Pred: GB  
DAL (0-1-0)  @ SF  (1-0-0)  Pred: SF  
SD  (1-0-0)  @ NE  (1-0-0)  Pred: NE  
HOU (1-0-0)  @ MIA (0-1-0)  Pred: HOU 
CIN (1-0-0)  @ DEN (0-1-0)  Pred: CIN 
PHI (1-0-0)  @ ATL (0-1-0)  Pred: PHI 
STL (0-1-0)  @ NYG (0-1-0)  Pred: NYG 

What the final standings will be if the ITP is accurate 100% of the time:


AFC-E BUF 16 0
NE   13 3
NYJ 8 8
MIA 2 14
AFC-N BAL  16 0
CLE 14 2
CIN  14 2
PIT 4 12
AFC-S HOU  14 2
IND 11 5
JAC 6 10
TEN 2 14
AFC-W SD   13 3
OAK  6 10
KC   2 14
DEN 0 16
NFC-E WAS  16 0
PHI 14 2
NYG 6 10
DAL 3 13
NFC-N DET  16 0
GB   12 4
CHI 11 5
MIN 4 12
NFC-S TB   9 7
CAR  6 10
ATL 4 12
NO   0 16
NFC-W SEA 13 3
ARI  12 4
SF   8 8
STL 3 13

2011 Week 1 Results

The ITP starts out with a respectable record in the opening week of action!


Prediction / Result
NO  (0-0-0)  @ GB  (0-0-0)  Pred: GB  Act: GB  +
ATL (0-0-0)  @ CHI (0-0-0)  Pred: CHI Act: CHI +
IND (0-0-0)  @ HOU (0-0-0)  Pred: HOU Act: HOU +
BUF (0-0-0)  @ KC  (0-0-0)  Pred: KC  Act: BUF -
CIN (0-0-0)  @ CLE (0-0-0)  Pred: CLE Act: CIN -
PIT (0-0-0)  @ BAL (0-0-0)  Pred: BAL Act: BAL +
PHI (0-0-0)  @ STL (0-0-0)  Pred: STL Act: PHI -
DET (0-0-0)  @ TB  (0-0-0)  Pred: TB  Act: DET -
TEN (0-0-0)  @ JAC (0-0-0)  Pred: JAC Act: JAC +
MIN (0-0-0)  @ SD  (0-0-0)  Pred: SD  Act: SD  +
CAR (0-0-0)  @ ARI (0-0-0)  Pred: ARI Act: ARI +
NYG (0-0-0)  @ WAS (0-0-0)  Pred: WAS Act: WAS +
SEA (0-0-0)  @ SF  (0-0-0)  Pred: SF  Act: SF  +
DAL (0-0-0)  @ NYJ (0-0-0)  Pred: NYJ Act: NYJ +
NE  (0-0-0)  @ MIA (0-0-0)  Pred: MIA Act: NE  -
OAK (0-0-0)  @ DEN (0-0-0)  Pred: DEN Act: OAK -



Wk + Wk - Wk Pct Cum + Cum - Cum Pct
10 6 62.5% 10 6 62.5%

2011 Week 1 Predictions

Week 1 Prediction
NO  (0-0-0)  @ GB  (0-0-0)  Pred: GB  
ATL (0-0-0)  @ CHI (0-0-0)  Pred: CHI 
IND (0-0-0)  @ HOU (0-0-0)  Pred: HOU 
BUF (0-0-0)  @ KC  (0-0-0)  Pred: KC  
CIN (0-0-0)  @ CLE (0-0-0)  Pred: CLE 
PIT (0-0-0)  @ BAL (0-0-0)  Pred: BAL 
PHI (0-0-0)  @ STL (0-0-0)  Pred: STL 
DET (0-0-0)  @ TB  (0-0-0)  Pred: TB  
TEN (0-0-0)  @ JAC (0-0-0)  Pred: JAC 
MIN (0-0-0)  @ SD  (0-0-0)  Pred: SD  
CAR (0-0-0)  @ ARI (0-0-0)  Pred: ARI 
NYG (0-0-0)  @ WAS (0-0-0)  Pred: WAS 
SEA (0-0-0)  @ SF  (0-0-0)  Pred: SF  
DAL (0-0-0)  @ NYJ (0-0-0)  Pred: NYJ 
NE  (0-0-0)  @ MIA (0-0-0)  Pred: MIA 
OAK (0-0-0)  @ DEN (0-0-0)  Pred: DEN 


Predicted final standings if the ITB is 100% accurate:

AFC-E NYJ  15 1
BUF 10 6
        NE   1 15
MIA 6 10
AFC-N PIT 12 4
BAL 10 6
CLE 3 13
CIN 3 13
AFC-S HOU  9 7
JAC  5 11
TEN 2 14
IND  0 16
AFC-W DEN  16 0
KC   10 6
SD   9 7
OAK 3 13
NFC-E WAS  12 4
DAL  8 8
NYG 4 12
PHI  3 13
NFC-N CHI 14 2
MIN 5 11
DET 2 14
GB   0 16
NFC-S NO   15 1
ATL 12 4
TB   11 5
CAR 6 10
NFC-W SF   16 0
STL 14 2
SEA 9 7
ARI 8 8

The Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate Returns for 2011!

The Isaacson-Tarbell postulate (see my first post for an explanation) offers a simple formula for predicting the winning team throughout the NFL season: (1) the team with the better record wins, (2) if they have the same record, then the home team wins. In the 2010 season the formula was correct 58.6% of the time through the regular season. In 2009 the record was 61.3%.

New this season, using the postulate, we will project the final season records and standings each week. Since the formula is wrong roughly 40% of the time, over a 17-week season, this error will compound greatly. In fact, before the season, it will simply reflect which teams play at home most in the early weeks. We shamelessly crib Tuesday Morning Quarterback's guarantee here: all predictions wrong, or your money back.