Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 17

IND (14-1-0) @ BUF (5-10-0) --> IND 

NO  (13-2-0) @ CAR  (7-8-0) --> NO 

JAC  (7-8-0) @ CLE (4-11-0) --> JAC 

PHI (11-4-0) @ DAL (10-5-0) --> PHI 

CHI  (6-9-0) @ DET (2-13-0) --> CHI 

NE  (10-5-0) @ HOU  (8-7-0) --> NE 

PIT  (8-7-0) @ MIA  (7-8-0) --> PIT 

NYG  (8-7-0) @ MIN (11-4-0) --> MIN 

CIN (10-5-0) @ NYJ  (8-7-0) --> CIN 

SF   (7-8-0) @ STL (1-14-0) --> SF 

ATL  (8-7-0) @ TB  (3-12-0) --> ATL 

GB  (10-5-0) @ ARI (10-5-0) --> ARI 

KC  (3-12-0) @ DEN  (8-7-0) --> DEN 

BAL  (8-7-0) @ OAK (5-10-0) --> BAL 

WAS (4-11-0) @ SD  (12-3-0) --> SD 

TEN  (7-8-0) @ SEA (5-10-0) --> TEN 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 16

Another sub-par week.

Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct  Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
      9  7   56.3%   149       91  62.1%



Prediction / Result
SD  (11-3-0) @ TEN  (7-7-0) --> SD  +
BUF  (5-9-0) @ ATL  (7-7-0) --> ATL +
KC  (3-11-0) @ CIN  (9-5-0) --> CIN +
OAK  (5-9-0) @ CLE (3-11-0) --> OAK -
SEA  (5-9-0) @ GB   (9-5-0) --> GB  +
HOU  (7-7-0) @ MIA  (7-7-0) --> MIA -
CAR  (6-8-0) @ NYG  (8-6-0) --> NYG -
JAC  (7-7-0) @ NE   (9-5-0) --> NE  +
TB  (2-12-0) @ NO  (13-1-0) --> NO  -
DEN  (8-6-0) @ PHI (10-4-0) --> PHI +
BAL  (8-6-0) @ PIT  (7-7-0) --> BAL -
STL (1-13-0) @ ARI  (9-5-0) --> ARI +
DET (2-12-0) @ SF   (6-8-0) --> SF  +
NYJ  (7-7-0) @ IND (14-0-0) --> IND -
DAL  (9-5-0) @ WAS (4-10-0) --> DAL +
MIN (11-3-0) @ CHI  (5-9-0) --> MIN -

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 16

SD  (11-3-0) @ TEN  (7-7-0) --> SD 
BUF  (5-9-0) @ ATL  (7-7-0) --> ATL 
KC  (3-11-0) @ CIN  (9-5-0) --> CIN 
OAK  (5-9-0) @ CLE (3-11-0) --> OAK 
SEA  (5-9-0) @ GB   (9-5-0) --> GB 
HOU  (7-7-0) @ MIA  (7-7-0) --> MIA 
CAR  (6-8-0) @ NYG  (8-6-0) --> NYG 
JAC  (7-7-0) @ NE   (9-5-0) --> NE 
TB  (2-12-0) @ NO  (13-1-0) --> NO 
DEN  (8-6-0) @ PHI (10-4-0) --> PHI 
BAL  (8-6-0) @ PIT  (7-7-0) --> BAL 
STL (1-13-0) @ ARI  (9-5-0) --> ARI 
DET (2-12-0) @ SF   (6-8-0) --> SF 
NYJ  (7-7-0) @ IND (14-0-0) --> IND 
DAL  (9-5-0) @ WAS (4-10-0) --> DAL 
MIN (11-3-0) @ CHI  (5-9-0) --> MIN 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 15

Back to mediocrity this week! 



Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct  Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
      8   8  50.0%  140  84  62.5%



Prediction / Result
IND (13-0-0) @ JAC  (7-6-0) --> IND +
DAL  (8-5-0) @ NO  (13-0-0) --> NO  -
CHI  (5-8-0) @ BAL  (7-6-0) --> BAL +
NE   (8-5-0) @ BUF  (5-8-0) --> NE  +
ARI  (8-5-0) @ DET (2-12-0) --> ARI +
CLE (2-12-0) @ KC  (3-10-0) --> KC  -
ATL  (6-7-0) @ NYJ  (7-6-0) --> NYJ -
SF   (6-7-0) @ PHI  (9-4-0) --> PHI +
GB   (9-4-0) @ PIT  (6-7-0) --> GB  -
HOU  (6-7-0) @ STL (1-12-0) --> HOU +
MIA  (7-6-0) @ TEN  (6-7-0) --> MIA -
OAK  (4-9-0) @ DEN  (8-5-0) --> DEN -
CIN  (9-4-0) @ SD  (10-3-0) --> SD  +
TB  (1-12-0) @ SEA  (5-8-0) --> SEA -
MIN (11-2-0) @ CAR  (5-8-0) --> MIN -
NYG  (7-6-0) @ WAS  (4-9-0) --> NYG +

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 15

IND (13-0-0) @ JAC  (7-6-0) --> IND 
DAL  (8-5-0) @ NO  (13-0-0) --> NO 
CHI  (5-8-0) @ BAL  (7-6-0) --> BAL 
NE   (8-5-0) @ BUF  (5-8-0) --> NE 
ARI  (8-5-0) @ DET (2-12-0) --> ARI 
CLE (2-12-0) @ KC  (3-10-0) --> KC 
ATL  (6-7-0) @ NYJ  (7-6-0) --> NYJ 
SF   (6-7-0) @ PHI  (9-4-0) --> PHI 
GB   (9-4-0) @ PIT  (6-7-0) --> GB 
HOU  (6-7-0) @ STL (1-12-0) --> HOU 
MIA  (7-6-0) @ TEN  (6-7-0) --> MIA 
OAK  (4-9-0) @ DEN  (8-5-0) --> DEN 
CIN  (9-4-0) @ SD  (10-3-0) --> SD 
TB  (1-12-0) @ SEA  (5-8-0) --> SEA 
MIN (11-2-0) @ CAR  (5-8-0) --> MIN 
NYG  (7-6-0) @ WAS  (4-9-0) --> NYG 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 14

A fourth straight week with 11 or 12 correct!


Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct  Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
    12        4   75.0%        132      76    63.5%


Prediction / Result
PIT  (6-6-0) @ CLE (1-11-0) --> PIT -
NO  (12-0-0) @ ATL  (6-6-0) --> NO  +
GB   (8-4-0) @ CHI  (5-7-0) --> GB  +
SEA  (5-7-0) @ HOU  (5-7-0) --> HOU +
DET (2-10-0) @ BAL  (6-6-0) --> BAL +
DEN  (8-4-0) @ IND (12-0-0) --> IND +
BUF  (4-8-0) @ KC   (3-9-0) --> BUF +
CAR  (5-7-0) @ NE   (7-5-0) --> NE  +
STL (1-11-0) @ TEN  (5-7-0) --> TEN +
NYJ  (6-6-0) @ TB  (1-11-0) --> NYJ +
CIN  (9-3-0) @ MIN (10-2-0) --> MIN +
MIA  (6-6-0) @ JAC  (7-5-0) --> JAC -
WAS  (3-9-0) @ OAK  (4-8-0) --> OAK -
SD   (9-3-0) @ DAL  (8-4-0) --> SD  +
PHI  (8-4-0) @ NYG  (7-5-0) --> PHI +
ARI  (8-4-0) @ SF   (5-7-0) --> ARI -

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 14

PIT  (6-6-0) @ CLE (1-11-0) --> PIT 
NO  (12-0-0) @ ATL  (6-6-0) --> NO 
GB   (8-4-0) @ CHI  (5-7-0) --> GB 
SEA  (5-7-0) @ HOU  (5-7-0) --> HOU 
DET (2-10-0) @ BAL  (6-6-0) --> BAL 
DEN  (8-4-0) @ IND (12-0-0) --> IND 
BUF  (4-8-0) @ KC   (3-9-0) --> BUF 
CAR  (5-7-0) @ NE   (7-5-0) --> NE 
STL (1-11-0) @ TEN  (5-7-0) --> TEN 
NYJ  (6-6-0) @ TB  (1-11-0) --> NYJ 
CIN  (9-3-0) @ MIN (10-2-0) --> MIN 
MIA  (6-6-0) @ JAC  (7-5-0) --> JAC 
WAS  (3-9-0) @ OAK  (4-8-0) --> OAK 
SD   (9-3-0) @ DAL  (8-4-0) --> SD 
PHI  (8-4-0) @ NYG  (7-5-0) --> PHI 
ARI  (8-4-0) @ SF   (5-7-0) --> ARI 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 13

Assuming Green Bay holds on in the fourth quarter, we're happy with our third straight very strong week.

Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct  Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct

     11  5  68.8%  120  72  62.5%

Prediction / Result

NYJ  (5-6-0) @ BUF  (4-7-0) --> NYJ +

PHI  (7-4-0) @ ATL  (6-5-0) --> PHI +

STL (1-10-0) @ CHI  (4-7-0) --> CHI +

DET  (2-9-0) @ CIN  (8-3-0) --> CIN +

TB  (1-10-0) @ CAR  (4-7-0) --> CAR +

TEN  (5-6-0) @ IND (11-0-0) --> IND +

DEN  (7-4-0) @ KC   (3-8-0) --> DEN +

NO  (11-0-0) @ WAS  (3-8-0) --> NO  +

OAK  (3-8-0) @ PIT  (6-5-0) --> PIT -

HOU  (5-6-0) @ JAC  (6-5-0) --> JAC +

SD   (8-3-0) @ CLE (1-10-0) --> SD  +

MIN (10-1-0) @ ARI  (7-4-0) --> MIN -

DAL  (8-3-0) @ NYG  (6-5-0) --> DAL -

SF   (5-6-0) @ SEA  (4-7-0) --> SF  -

NE   (7-4-0) @ MIA  (5-6-0) --> NE  -

BAL  (6-5-0) @ GB   (7-4-0) --> GB  +

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 13

NYJ  (5-6-0) @ BUF  (4-7-0) --> NYJ 
PHI  (7-4-0) @ ATL  (6-5-0) --> PHI 
STL (1-10-0) @ CHI  (4-7-0) --> CHI 
DET  (2-9-0) @ CIN  (8-3-0) --> CIN 
TB  (1-10-0) @ CAR  (4-7-0) --> CAR 
TEN  (5-6-0) @ IND (11-0-0) --> IND 
DEN  (7-4-0) @ KC   (3-8-0) --> DEN 
NO  (11-0-0) @ WAS  (3-8-0) --> NO 
OAK  (3-8-0) @ PIT  (6-5-0) --> PIT 
HOU  (5-6-0) @ JAC  (6-5-0) --> JAC 
SD   (8-3-0) @ CLE (1-10-0) --> SD 
MIN (10-1-0) @ ARI  (7-4-0) --> MIN 
DAL  (8-3-0) @ NYG  (6-5-0) --> DAL 
SF   (5-6-0) @ SEA  (4-7-0) --> SF 
NE   (7-4-0) @ MIA  (5-6-0) --> NE 
BAL  (6-5-0) @ GB   (7-4-0) --> GB 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 12

Another fine week--the second best of the season!


Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct  Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
     12      4   75.0%  109   67  61.9%



Prediction / Result
GB   (6-4-0) @ DET (2-8-0) --> GB  +
OAK  (3-7-0) @ DAL (7-3-0) --> DAL +
NYG  (6-4-0) @ DEN (6-4-0) --> DEN +
TB   (1-9-0) @ ATL (5-5-0) --> ATL +
MIA  (5-5-0) @ BUF (3-7-0) --> MIA -
CLE  (1-9-0) @ CIN (7-3-0) --> CIN +
CHI  (4-6-0) @ MIN (9-1-0) --> MIN +
WAS  (3-7-0) @ PHI (6-4-0) --> PHI +
ARI  (7-3-0) @ TEN (4-6-0) --> ARI -
SEA  (3-7-0) @ STL (1-9-0) --> SEA +
CAR  (4-6-0) @ NYJ (4-6-0) --> NYJ +
IND (10-0-0) @ HOU (5-5-0) --> IND +
KC   (3-7-0) @ SD  (7-3-0) --> SD  +
JAC  (6-4-0) @ SF  (4-6-0) --> JAC -
PIT  (6-4-0) @ BAL (5-5-0) --> PIT -
NE   (7-3-0) @ NO (10-0-0) --> NO  +

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 12

GB  (6-4-0)  @ DET (2-8-0) --> GB 
OAK (3-7-0)  @ DAL (7-3-0) --> DAL 
NYG (6-4-0)  @ DEN (6-4-0) --> DEN 
TB  (1-9-0)  @ ATL (5-5-0) --> ATL 
MIA (5-5-0)  @ BUF (3-7-0) --> MIA 
CLE (1-9-0)  @ CIN (7-3-0) --> CIN 
CHI (4-6-0)  @ MIN (9-1-0) --> MIN 
WAS (3-7-0)  @ PHI (6-4-0) --> PHI 
ARI (7-3-0)  @ TEN (4-6-0) --> ARI 
SEA (3-7-0)  @ STL (1-9-0) --> SEA 
CAR (4-6-0)  @ NYJ (4-6-0) --> NYJ 
IND (10-0-0) @ HOU (5-5-0) --> IND 
KC  (3-7-0)  @ SD  (7-3-0) --> SD 
JAC (6-4-0)  @ SF  (4-6-0) --> JAC 
PIT (6-4-0)  @ BAL (5-5-0) --> PIT 
NE  (7-3-0)  @ NO (10-0-0) --> NO 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 11

Thanks to an 11-5 record, the ITP season record improves for the first time in five weeks, and we're back up over 60% on the year.

Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct    Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
     11  5   68.8%          97       63    60.6%



Prediction / Result
MIA (4-5-0) @ CAR (4-5-0) --> CAR -
IND (9-0-0) @ BAL (5-4-0) --> IND +
CLE (1-8-0) @ DET (1-8-0) --> DET +
SF  (4-5-0) @ GB  (5-4-0) --> GB  +
WAS (3-6-0) @ DAL (6-3-0) --> DAL +
BUF (3-6-0) @ JAC (5-4-0) --> JAC +
SEA (3-6-0) @ MIN (8-1-0) --> MIN +
NO  (9-0-0) @ TB  (1-8-0) --> NO  +
ATL (5-4-0) @ NYG (5-4-0) --> NYG +
PIT (6-3-0) @ KC  (2-7-0) --> PIT -
ARI (6-3-0) @ STL (1-8-0) --> ARI +
SD  (6-3-0) @ DEN (6-3-0) --> DEN -
NYJ (4-5-0) @ NE  (6-3-0) --> NE  +
CIN (7-2-0) @ OAK (2-7-0) --> CIN -
PHI (5-4-0) @ CHI (4-5-0) --> PHI +
TEN (3-6-0) @ HOU (5-4-0) --> HOU -

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 11

MIA (4-5-0) @ CAR (4-5-0) --> CAR 
IND (9-0-0) @ BAL (5-4-0) --> IND 
CLE (1-8-0) @ DET (1-8-0) --> DET 
SF  (4-5-0) @ GB  (5-4-0) --> GB 
WAS (3-6-0) @ DAL (6-3-0) --> DAL 
BUF (3-6-0) @ JAC (5-4-0) --> JAC 
SEA (3-6-0) @ MIN (8-1-0) --> MIN 
NO  (9-0-0) @ TB  (1-8-0) --> NO 
ATL (5-4-0) @ NYG (5-4-0) --> NYG 
PIT (6-3-0) @ KC  (2-7-0) --> PIT 
ARI (6-3-0) @ STL (1-8-0) --> ARI 
SD  (6-3-0) @ DEN (6-3-0) --> DEN 
NYJ (4-5-0) @ NE  (6-3-0) --> NE 
CIN (7-2-0) @ OAK (2-7-0) --> CIN 
PHI (5-4-0) @ CHI (4-5-0) --> PHI 
TEN (3-6-0) @ HOU (5-4-0) --> HOU 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 10

Many close games flip the wrong way and ITP ends the week below .500. Thank goodness Belichick's gamble failed.


Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct    Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
      7       8   46.7%          86       58    59.7%


CHI (4-4-0) @ SF  (3-5-0) --> CHI -
ATL (5-3-0) @ CAR (3-5-0) --> ATL -
DET (1-7-0) @ MIN (7-1-0) --> MIN +
TB  (1-7-0) @ MIA (3-5-0) --> MIA +
JAC (4-4-0) @ NYJ (4-4-0) --> NYJ -
NO  (8-0-0) @ STL (1-7-0) --> NO  +
DEN (6-2-0) @ WAS (2-6-0) --> DEN -
BUF (3-5-0) @ TEN (2-6-0) --> BUF -
CIN (6-2-0) @ PIT (6-2-0) --> PIT -
KC  (1-7-0) @ OAK (2-6-0) --> OAK -
SEA (3-5-0) @ ARI (5-3-0) --> ARI +
DAL (6-2-0) @ GB  (4-4-0) --> DAL -
PHI (5-3-0) @ SD  (5-3-0) --> SD  +
NE  (6-2-0) @ IND (8-0-0) --> IND +
BAL (4-4-0) @ CLE (1-7-0) --> BAL +

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 10

We're at 61.2% at the season's midpoint...

CHI (4-4-0) @ SF  (3-5-0) --> CHI 
ATL (5-3-0) @ CAR (3-5-0) --> ATL 
DET (1-7-0) @ MIN (7-1-0) --> MIN 
TB  (1-7-0) @ MIA (3-5-0) --> MIA 
JAC (4-4-0) @ NYJ (4-4-0) --> NYJ 
NO  (8-0-0) @ STL (1-7-0) --> NO 
DEN (6-2-0) @ WAS (2-6-0) --> DEN 
BUF (3-5-0) @ TEN (2-6-0) --> BUF 
CIN (6-2-0) @ PIT (6-2-0) --> PIT 
KC  (1-7-0) @ OAK (2-6-0) --> OAK 
SEA (3-5-0) @ ARI (5-3-0) --> ARI 
DAL (6-2-0) @ GB  (4-4-0) --> DAL 
PHI (5-3-0) @ SD  (5-3-0) --> SD 
NE  (6-2-0) @ IND (8-0-0) --> IND 
BAL (4-4-0) @ CLE (1-7-0) --> BAL 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 9

As we reach the midpoint of the season, we're running just 7-6 two weeks running...
Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct   Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
      7       6   53.8%         79       50    61.2%

Prediction / Result
WAS (2-5-0) @ ATL (4-3-0) --> ATL +
ARI (4-3-0) @ CHI (4-3-0) --> CHI -
HOU (5-3-0) @ IND (7-0-0) --> IND +
MIA (3-4-0) @ NE  (5-2-0) --> NE  +
GB  (4-3-0) @ TB  (0-7-0) --> GB  -
KC  (1-6-0) @ JAC (3-4-0) --> JAC +
BAL (4-3-0) @ CIN (5-2-0) --> CIN +
CAR (3-4-0) @ NO  (7-0-0) --> NO  +
DET (1-6-0) @ SEA (2-5-0) --> SEA +
SD  (4-3-0) @ NYG (5-3-0) --> NYG -
TEN (1-6-0) @ SF  (3-4-0) --> SF  -
DAL (5-2-0) @ PHI (5-2-0) --> PHI -
PIT (5-2-0) @ DEN (6-1-0) --> DEN -

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 9

WAS (2-5-0) @ ATL (4-3-0) --> ATL 
ARI (4-3-0) @ CHI (4-3-0) --> CHI 
HOU (5-3-0) @ IND (7-0-0) --> IND 
MIA (3-4-0) @ NE  (5-2-0) --> NE 
GB  (4-3-0) @ TB  (0-7-0) --> GB 
KC  (1-6-0) @ JAC (3-4-0) --> JAC 
BAL (4-3-0) @ CIN (5-2-0) --> CIN 
CAR (3-4-0) @ NO  (7-0-0) --> NO 
DET (1-6-0) @ SEA (2-5-0) --> SEA 
SD  (4-3-0) @ NYG (5-3-0) --> NYG 
TEN (1-6-0) @ SF  (3-4-0) --> SF 
DAL (5-2-0) @ PHI (5-2-0) --> PHI 
PIT (5-2-0) @ DEN (6-1-0) --> DEN 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 8

Another coin flip week...

Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct   Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
      7  6  53.8% 72       44  62.1%

DEN (6-0-0) @ BAL (3-3-0) --> DEN -
HOU (4-3-0) @ BUF (3-4-0) --> HOU +
MIA (2-4-0) @ NYJ (4-3-0) --> NYJ -
SF  (3-3-0) @ IND (6-0-0) --> IND +
MIN (6-1-0) @ GB  (4-2-0) --> MIN +
CLE (1-6-0) @ CHI (3-3-0) --> CHI +
SEA (2-4-0) @ DAL (4-2-0) --> DAL +
STL (0-7-0) @ DET (1-5-0) --> DET -
OAK (2-5-0) @ SD  (3-3-0) --> SD  +
JAC (3-3-0) @ TEN (0-6-0) --> JAC -
CAR (2-4-0) @ ARI (4-2-0) --> ARI -
NYG (5-2-0) @ PHI (4-2-0) --> NYG -
ATL (4-2-0) @ NO  (6-0-0) --> NO  +

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 8

Prediction / Result
DEN (6-0-0) @ BAL (3-3-0) --> DEN 
HOU (4-3-0) @ BUF (3-4-0) --> HOU 
MIA (2-4-0) @ NYJ (4-3-0) --> NYJ 
SF  (3-3-0) @ IND (6-0-0) --> IND 
MIN (6-1-0) @ GB  (4-2-0) --> MIN 
CLE (1-6-0) @ CHI (3-3-0) --> CHI 
SEA (2-4-0) @ DAL (4-2-0) --> DAL 
STL (0-7-0) @ DET (1-5-0) --> DET 
OAK (2-5-0) @ SD  (3-3-0) --> SD 
JAC (3-3-0) @ TEN (0-6-0) --> JAC 
CAR (2-4-0) @ ARI (4-2-0) --> ARI 
NYG (5-2-0) @ PHI (4-2-0) --> NYG 
ATL (4-2-0) @ NO  (6-0-0) --> NO 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 7

Posting a little early this week, assuming the Eagles will hold on against the 'Skins (and why not?!).  A respectable week keeps the season average north of 63%.

Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct    Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
      8  5 61.5% 65  38  63.1%

Prediction / Result
CHI (3-2-0) @ CIN (4-2-0) --> CIN +
GB  (3-2-0) @ CLE (1-5-0) --> GB  +
SF  (3-2-0) @ HOU (3-3-0) --> SF  -
SD  (2-3-0) @ KC  (1-5-0) --> SD  +
MIN (6-0-0) @ PIT (4-2-0) --> MIN -
IND (5-0-0) @ STL (0-6-0) --> IND +
NE  (4-2-0) @ TB  (0-6-0) --> NE  +
BUF (2-4-0) @ CAR (2-3-0) --> CAR -
NYJ (3-3-0) @ OAK (2-4-0) --> NYJ +
ATL (4-1-0) @ DAL (3-2-0) --> ATL -
NO  (5-0-0) @ MIA (2-3-0) --> NO  +
ARI (3-2-0) @ NYG (5-1-0) --> NYG -
PHI (3-2-0) @ WAS (2-4-0) --> PHI +

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 7

CHI (3-2-0) @ CIN (4-2-0) --> CIN 
GB  (3-2-0) @ CLE (1-5-0) --> GB 
SF  (3-2-0) @ HOU (3-3-0) --> SF 
SD  (2-3-0) @ KC  (1-5-0) --> SD 
MIN (6-0-0) @ PIT (4-2-0) --> MIN 
IND (5-0-0) @ STL (0-6-0) --> IND 
NE  (4-2-0) @ TB  (0-6-0) --> NE 
BUF (2-4-0) @ CAR (2-3-0) --> CAR 
NYJ (3-3-0) @ OAK (2-4-0) --> NYJ 
ATL (4-1-0) @ DAL (3-2-0) --> ATL 
NO  (5-0-0) @ MIA (2-3-0) --> NO 
ARI (3-2-0) @ NYG (5-1-0) --> NYG 
PHI (3-2-0) @ WAS (2-4-0) --> PHI 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 6

A good week at 10-4, with season percentage creeping up past 63%


Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct  Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
10            4  71.4%  57  33  63.3%



HOU (2-3-0) @ CIN (4-1-0) --> CIN -
DET (1-4-0) @ GB (2-2-0)  --> GB +
STL (0-5-0) @ JAC (2-3-0) --> JAC +
BAL (3-2-0) @ MIN (5-0-0) --> MIN +
NYG (5-0-0) @ NO (4-0-0)  --> NO +
CLE (1-4-0) @ PIT (3-2-0) --> PIT +
CAR (1-3-0) @ TB (0-5-0)  --> CAR +
KC (0-5-0)  @ WAS (2-3-0) --> WAS -
PHI (3-1-0) @ OAK (1-4-0) --> PHI -
ARI (2-2-0) @ SEA (2-3-0) --> ARI +
TEN (0-5-0) @ NE (3-2-0)  --> NE +
BUF (1-4-0) @ NYJ (3-2-0) --> NYJ -
CHI (3-1-0) @ ATL (3-1-0) --> ATL +
DEN (5-0-0) @ SD (2-2-0)  --> DEN +

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 6

HOU (2-3-0) @ CIN (4-1-0) --> CIN 
DET (1-4-0) @ GB  (2-2-0) --> GB 
STL (0-5-0) @ JAC (2-3-0) --> JAC 
BAL (3-2-0) @ MIN (5-0-0) --> MIN 
NYG (5-0-0) @ NO  (4-0-0) --> NO 
CLE (1-4-0) @ PIT (3-2-0) --> PIT 
CAR (1-3-0) @ TB  (0-5-0) --> CAR 
KC  (0-5-0) @ WAS (2-3-0) --> WAS 
PHI (3-1-0) @ OAK (1-4-0) --> PHI 
ARI (2-2-0) @ SEA (2-3-0) --> ARI 
TEN (0-5-0) @ NE  (3-2-0) --> NE 
BUF (1-4-0) @ NYJ (3-2-0) --> NYJ 
CHI (3-1-0) @ ATL (3-1-0) --> ATL 
DEN (5-0-0) @ SD  (2-2-0) --> DEN 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 5

The ITP reverts to coin-flip accuracy this week:

Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct  Cum Corr Cum Inc  Cum Pct
      7  7  50.0%  47  29    61.8%


Prediction / Result
CIN (3-1-0) @ BAL (3-1-0) --> BAL -
TB  (0-4-0) @ PHI (2-1-0) --> PHI +
MIN (3-0-0) @ STL (0-4-0) --> MIN +
OAK (1-3-0) @ NYG (4-0-0) --> NYG +
CLE (0-4-0) @ BUF (1-3-0) --> BUF -
WAS (2-2-0) @ CAR (0-3-0) --> WAS -
DAL (2-2-0) @ KC  (0-4-0) --> DAL +
PIT (2-2-0) @ DET (1-3-0) --> PIT +
ATL (2-1-0) @ SF  (3-1-0) --> SF -
HOU (2-2-0) @ ARI (1-2-0) --> HOU -
NE  (3-1-0) @ DEN (4-0-0) --> DEN +
JAC (2-2-0) @ SEA (1-3-0) --> JAC -
IND (4-0-0) @ TEN (0-4-0) --> IND +
NYJ (3-1-0) @ MIA (1-3-0) --> NYJ -

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 4

Excellent results two weeks in a row.  11-3 this week, 40-22 (65%) on the season following four weeks.

DET (1-2-0) @ CHI (2-1-0) --> CHI +

TB (0-3-0)  @ WAS (1-2-0) --> WAS +

OAK (1-2-0) @ HOU (1-2-0) --> HOU +

SEA (1-2-0) @ IND (3-0-0) --> IND +

TEN (0-3-0) @ JAC (1-2-0) --> JAC +

BAL (3-0-0) @ NE (2-1-0)  --> BAL -

NYG (3-0-0) @ KC (0-3-0)  --> NYG +

CIN (2-1-0) @ CLE (0-3-0) --> CIN +

BUF (1-2-0) @ MIA (0-3-0) --> BUF -

NYJ (3-0-0) @ NO (3-0-0)  --> NO +

DAL (2-1-0) @ DEN (3-0-0) --> DEN +

STL (0-3-0) @ SF (2-1-0)  --> SF +

SD (2-1-0)  @ PIT (1-2-0) --> SD -

GB (2-1-0)  @ MIN (3-0-0) --> MIN +

Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct    Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct

     11       3   78.6%          40       22    64.5%

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Predictions: Week 4

DET (1-2-0) @ CHI (2-1-0) --> CHI 
TB (0-3-0)  @ WAS (1-2-0) --> WAS 
OAK (1-2-0) @ HOU (1-2-0) --> HOU 
SEA (1-2-0) @ IND (3-0-0) --> IND 
TEN (0-3-0) @ JAC (1-2-0) --> JAC 
BAL (3-0-0) @ NE (2-1-0) --> BAL 
NYG (3-0-0) @ KC (0-3-0) --> NYG 
CIN (2-1-0) @ CLE (0-3-0) --> CIN 
BUF (1-2-0) @ MIA (0-3-0) --> BUF 
NYJ (3-0-0) @ NO (3-0-0) --> NO 
DAL (2-1-0) @ DEN (3-0-0) --> DEN 
STL (0-3-0) @ SF (2-1-0) --> SF 
SD (2-1-0)  @ PIT (1-2-0) --> SD 
GB (2-1-0)  @ MIN (3-0-0) --> MIN 

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 3

A much more resectable 75% this week.


CLE (0-2-0) @ BAL (2-0-0)   Pred: BAL  Act: BAL +
TEN (0-2-0) @ NYJ (2-0-0)   Pred: NYJ  Act: NYJ +
NYG (2-0-0) @ TB  (0-2-0)   Pred: NYG  Act: NYG +
GB  (1-1-0) @ STL (0-2-0)   Pred: GB   Act: GB +
WAS (1-1-0) @ DET (0-2-0)   Pred: WAS  Act: DET -
JAC (0-2-0) @ HOU (1-1-0)   Pred: HOU  Act: JAC -
SF  (2-0-0) @ MIN (2-0-0)   Pred: MIN  Act: MIN +
KC  (0-2-0) @ PHI (1-1-0)   Pred: PHI  Act: PHI +
ATL (2-0-0) @ NE  (1-1-0)   Pred: ATL  Act: NE -
NO  (2-0-0) @ BUF (1-1-0)   Pred: NO   Act: NO +
CHI (1-1-0) @ SEA (1-1-0)   Pred: SEA  Act: CHI -
PIT (1-1-0) @ CIN (1-1-0)   Pred: CIN  Act: CIN +
MIA (0-2-0) @ SD  (1-1-0)   Pred: SD   Act: SD +
DEN (2-0-0) @ OAK (1-1-0)   Pred: DEN  Act: DEN +
IND (2-0-0) @ ARI (1-1-0)   Pred: IND  Act: IND +
CAR (0-2-0) @ DAL (1-1-0)   Pred: DAL  Act: DAL +

Wk Corr  Wk Inc  Wk Pct  Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct

     12  4   75.0%        29       19   60.4%

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate Predictions for 2009 Week 3

CLE (0-2-0) @ BAL (2-0-0)   Pred: BAL  
TEN (0-2-0) @ NYJ (2-0-0)   Pred: NYJ  
NYG (2-0-0) @ TB (0-2-0)    Pred: NYG  
GB (1-1-0)  @ STL (0-2-0)   Pred: GB  
WAS (1-1-0) @ DET (0-2-0)   Pred: WAS  
JAC (0-2-0) @ HOU (1-1-0)   Pred: HOU  
SF (2-0-0)  @ MIN (2-0-0)   Pred: MIN  
KC (0-2-0)  @ PHI (1-1-0)   Pred: PHI  
ATL (2-0-0) @ NE (1-1-0)    Pred: ATL  
NO (2-0-0)  @ BUF (1-1-0)   Pred: NO  
CHI (1-1-0) @ SEA (1-1-0)   Pred: SEA  
PIT (1-1-0) @ CIN (1-1-0)   Pred: CIN  
MIA (0-2-0) @ SD (1-1-0)    Pred: SD  
DEN (2-0-0) @ OAK (1-1-0)   Pred: DEN  
IND (2-0-0) @ ARI (1-1-0)   Pred: IND  
CAR (0-2-0) @ DAL (1-1-0)   Pred: DAL  

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 2

Week 2 is a tough one..... we're just .500 this week.

CAR (0-1-0) @ ATL (1-0-0)   Pred: ATL  Act: ATL +
MIN (1-0-0) @ DET (0-1-0)   Pred: MIN  Act: MIN +
CIN (0-1-0) @ GB (1-0-0)    Pred: GB   Act: CIN -
ARI (0-1-0) @ JAC (0-1-0)   Pred: JAC  Act: ARI -
OAK (0-1-0) @ KC (0-1-0)    Pred: KC   Act: OAK -
NE (1-0-0)  @ NYJ (1-0-0)   Pred: NYJ  Act: NYJ +
NO (1-0-0)  @ PHI (1-0-0)   Pred: PHI  Act: NO -
HOU (0-1-0) @ TEN (0-1-0)   Pred: TEN  Act: HOU -
STL (0-1-0) @ WAS (0-1-0)   Pred: WAS  Act: WAS +
TB (0-1-0)  @ BUF (0-1-0)   Pred: BUF  Act: BUF +
SEA (1-0-0) @ SF (1-0-0)    Pred: SF   Act: SF +
PIT (1-0-0) @ CHI (0-1-0)   Pred: PIT  Act: CHI -
CLE (0-1-0) @ DEN (1-0-0)   Pred: DEN  Act: DEN +
BAL (1-0-0) @ SD (1-0-0)    Pred: SD   Act: BAL -
NYG (1-0-0) @ DAL (1-0-0)   Pred: DAL  Act: NYG -
IND (1-0-0) @ MIA (0-1-0)   Pred: IND  Act: IND +



Wk Corr Wk Inc  Wk Pct  Cum Corr  Cum Inc  Cum Pct
      8  8 50.0%        17  15  53.1%

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate Predictions for 2009 Week 2

CAR (0-1-0) @ ATL (1-0-0)   Pred: ATL  
MIN (1-0-0) @ DET (0-1-0)   Pred: MIN  
CIN (0-1-0) @ GB  (1-0-0)   Pred: GB  
ARI (0-1-0) @ JAC (0-1-0)   Pred: JAC  
OAK (0-1-0) @ KC  (0-1-0)   Pred: KC  
NE  (1-0-0) @ NYJ (1-0-0)   Pred: NYJ  
NO  (1-0-0) @ PHI (1-0-0)   Pred: PHI  
HOU (0-1-0) @ TEN (0-1-0)   Pred: TEN  
STL (0-1-0) @ WAS (0-1-0)   Pred: WAS  
TB  (0-1-0) @ BUF (0-1-0)   Pred: BUF  
SEA (1-0-0) @ SF  (1-0-0)   Pred: SF  
PIT (1-0-0) @ CHI (0-1-0)   Pred: PIT  
CLE (0-1-0) @ DEN (1-0-0)   Pred: DEN  
BAL (1-0-0) @ SD  (1-0-0)   Pred: SD  
NYG (1-0-0) @ DAL (1-0-0)   Pred: DAL  
IND (1-0-0) @ MIA (0-1-0)   Pred: IND  

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate 2009 Results: Week 1

Wk+ Wk- WkPct Cum+ Cum- CumPct
 9 7 56.3% 9 7 56.3%



TEN (0-0-0) @ PIT (0-0-0)   Pred: PIT  Act: PIT +
MIA (0-0-0) @ ATL (0-0-0)   Pred: ATL  Act: ATL +
KC  (0-0-0) @ BAL (0-0-0)   Pred: BAL  Act: BAL +
PHI (0-0-0) @ CAR (0-0-0)   Pred: CAR  Act: PHI -
DEN (0-0-0) @ CIN (0-0-0)   Pred: CIN  Act: DEN -
MIN (0-0-0) @ CLE (0-0-0)   Pred: CLE  Act: MIN -
NYJ (0-0-0) @ HOU (0-0-0)   Pred: HOU  Act: NYJ -
JAC (0-0-0) @ IND (0-0-0)   Pred: IND  Act: IND +
DET (0-0-0) @ NO  (0-0-0)   Pred: NO   Act: NO  +
DAL (0-0-0) @ TB  (0-0-0)   Pred: TB   Act: DAL -
SF  (0-0-0) @ ARI (0-0-0)   Pred: ARI  Act: SF  -
WAS (0-0-0) @ NYG (0-0-0)   Pred: NYG  Act: NYG +
STL (0-0-0) @ SEA (0-0-0)   Pred: SEA  Act: SEA +
CHI (0-0-0) @ GB  (0-0-0)   Pred: GB   Act: GB  +
BUF (0-0-0) @ NE  (0-0-0)   Pred: NE   Act: NE  +
SD  (0-0-0) @ OAK (0-0-0)   Pred: OAK  Act: SD  -

Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate Predictions for 2009 Week 1

Week 1  -- Clean slates, home teams all to win!

Results posted Tuesday, September 15, 2009

TEN (0-0-0) @ PIT (0-0-0) --> PIT

MIA (0-0-0) @ ATL (0-0-0) --> ATL

KC (0-0-0) @ BAL (0-0-0) --> BAL

PHI (0-0-0) @ CAR (0-0-0) --> CAR

DEN (0-0-0) @ CIN (0-0-0) --> CIN

MIN (0-0-0) @ CLE (0-0-0) --> CLE

NYJ (0-0-0) @ HOU (0-0-0) --> HOU

JAC (0-0-0) @ IND (0-0-0) --> IND

DET (0-0-0) @ NO (0-0-0) --> NO

DAL (0-0-0) @ TB (0-0-0) --> TB

SF (0-0-0) @ ARI (0-0-0) --> ARI

WAS (0-0-0) @ NYG (0-0-0) --> NYG

STL (0-0-0) @ SEA (0-0-0) --> SEA

CHI (0-0-0) @ GB (0-0-0) --> GB

BUF (0-0-0) @ NE (0-0-0) --> NE

SD (0-0-0) @ OAK (0-0-0) --> OAK

The Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate Garners Attention

As of today a Google search for "isaacso-tarbell postulate" yields 376 hits, which I found both startling and delightful.  Here are a few of my favorites:

This one from 2008 shows that historically, the Isaacson-Tarbell postulate correctly predicts the winning team 62.5% of the time

This entry in a discussion forum at the website of Beatpaths ("automatic graphical power-ranking system based off of only wins, losses, and who beat who").  Here's another entry from the same site. 

This February 2008 Wall Street Journal blog

This prediction of the 2009 season records claims to use the Isaacson-Tarbell postulate to predict the final records of all 32 teams.  I don't if it starts from scratch or uses last season's records as a starting point, but it's good news if you're a fan of the Ravens or Saints, but not so good for the Cardinals, Bengals (we could have guessed that anyway!), or Bucs.

About the Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate

I have been a longtime reader of Gregg Easterbook's weekly Tuesday Morning Quarterback column.  ONe of Easterbrook's recurring features is a summary of the often dubious success rate of the many people who publish predictions of each week's NFL games.  This led him to propose this brain-free formula: "Home team wins."  As he notes, this requires no knowledge of any kind except which teams are playing and where the game is being held.  Given a modest home-team-advantage edge (put at 3 points by Jeff Sagarin), this formula should be right a little better than half the time over the season, and in fact it was in 2006 (53%) and 2007 (57%).  During the 2006 season, it occurred to me that this formula ignored the fact that, despite the home field advantage, it was more likely that the better team would win.  How do we know the better team?  Well, on average the better team will win more games.  So I started tracking this simple two-part formula: The team with the better record wins; if the records are the same, home team wins.

Easterbrook first published this prediction in his Bad Predictions Roundup column in Feb. 2007, noting a success rate of 56%.

Then in a 2007 pre-season column, Eastbrook wrote: "This year, I will endorse the generic forecast advocated in the offseason by about 20 readers, pulling from a hat the name Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Wash. Catey's Law: Best Record Wins -- Unless Records Equal, Then Home Team Wins. TMQ will track this off-price house-label generic forecast against the predictions of full-time football experts who possess incredible insider information."  As any good academic does, I recognized immediately the plagiarism of my own work, fired off a note to Easterbrook, who kindly corrected the record in the next day's reader-response column:

"Tuesday I wrote, 'This year I will endorse the generic forecast advocated in the offseason by about 20 readers, pulling from a hat the name Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Wash. Catey's Law: Best Record Wins -- Unless Records Equal, Then Home Team Wins.' Professor Eric Isaacson of Indiana University notes that last year I attributed this idea to him. Hey Eric -- you don't think I can actually remember everything in Tuesday Morning Quarterback, do you?! At any rate, from now on I will call the generic prediction in question the Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate."

Easterbrook has reported interim and final results several times since then.  Before I link to these, I want to note that, unfortunately, Easterbook consistently over-reports the success of the formula.  I've not verified the cause but believe it is because he is looking at the teams' records after the game has been played, not before.  This has the effect of changing the formula's prediction in favor of the winning team after the game is over!  After each of the links below I'll provide the correct results.

October 10, 2007 (TMQ reports: 52-24, 68%.  Actual: 48-28, 63%)

November 7, 2007 (TMQ reports: 94-36, 72%.  Actual: 87-43, 67%)

February 8, 2008 -- Quoting from the season wrap-up:

"The Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate ruled the landscape of NFL predictions, finishing the season 183-84, or 69 percent correct. Of the dozens of NFL predictors TMQ tracked, John Czarnecki of Fox Sports had the best finish, at 183-84; ESPN's best predictor was Keyshawn Johnson at 176-91. Since its first mention in TMQ, the Isaacson-Tarbell Postuate has been referenced throughout the blogosphere."

The correct figure is: 175-92, 66%

November 18, 2008 (TMQ reports 107-51-1, 69%; Actual: 96-64, 60%)

February 10, 2009 -- Quoting from the season wrap-up:

"The Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate, proposed by TMQ readers Eric Isaacson of Indiana University and Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Wash., holds: Best Record Wins Unless Records Equal, Then Home Team Wins. If you'd picked 2008 NFL games using this simple algorithm, you would have picked 175 of 267 contests correctly (.665), counting London as a "home" game for New Orleans, Toronto as a "home" game for Buffalo and the Super Bowl as a "home" game for Arizona, which was the home team of record. The Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate is a huge time-saver because you don't have to think about picks -- you don't even need to know who's playing!"

The correct results are 159-108 (60%).